Real-Time Prediction and Decision Making in Connected and Automated Vehicles Under Cyber-Security and Safety Uncertainties

Our current transportation system is on the brink of transforming into a highly connected,automated, and intelligent system as a result of the rapid emergence of connected andautomated vehicles (CAVs). CAVs, with various levels of automation, are expected toincrease overall road safety, reduce travel time, improve comfort, improve fuel efficiency, anddecrease fatal accidents in the near future. CAVs use a combination of cameras, ultrasonicsensors, and radar to build a digital map of their surroundings and operate the vehicleaccordingly. As a result, there are numerous sources of information that can be manipulated,with malicious or non-malicious intent, which may result in dangerous situations. Althoughthe ever-increasing use of CAV technologies in vehicles are expected to have numerousadvantages, they can give rise to new challenges in terms of safety, security, and privacy.As evident by recent crash records and experiments successfully conducting cyber attacks onvehicles, the currently available autonomous systems lack the ability to fully handle novel,complex situations. Hence, the potential drawbacks of CAVs are not negligible and shouldnot be ignored. In this study, we investigate the real-time prediction and decision makingin CAVs under cyber-security and safety uncertainties

A framework for incorporating business risks in physical asset replacement decisions in capital-intensive industries

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2016.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The global financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent recession brought the turmoil of unprecedented uncertainty and risk to capital-intensive organizations forcing themto re-evaluate capital investment strategies for physical assets. The business landscape now, in 2016, share similar economic and business risk related circumstances. Capital-intensive organizations are frequently faced with the challenging decision of when to replace physical assets. This decision needs to be made as a function of traditional asset replacement factors such as performance degradation, operating and maintenance costs, asset salvage value, and tax implications as well as organization-specific circumstances and the external business environment. Today, many organizations tend to focus on traditional asset replacement factors therefore not including the evolution and impact of business risks which may significantly influence strategic initiatives such as operating and capital expenditure decisions. In this study, a quantitative framework is developed to incorporate the forecasted impacts and evolution of business risks over time into physical asset replacement decisions in capital-intensive industries. More specifically, a logical and structured framework incorporating both qualitative and quantitative busness risks as well as traditional asset replacement factors using theMarkov Decision Process (MDP) modeling technique is developed. The framework provides managers with a tool to assist them in generating an optimal physical asset replacement policy for a finite period of time into the future while adhering to a specified objective function. An extensive literature review is conducted which covers Asset Management (AM), asset replacement theories, business riskmanagement, and modeling techniques serving as the foundation of the proposed framework. Validation of the proposed framework was accomplished by means of a case study conducted at a diamond mining organization in Southern Africa facing a volatile business environment proving both the theoretical and practical value of the framework. The results indicate that the developed framework is a useful tool to incorporate business risks in physical asset replacement decisions in capital-intensive industries.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die wêreldwye finansiële krisis in 2008 en die gevolglike resessie het ongekende onsekerheid en risiko teweeggebring in kapitaalintensiewe organisasies en hulle sodoende gedwing om bestaande kapitaal beleggingstrategieë vir fisiese bates te hersien. Die huidige besigheidslandskap, in 2016, toon soortgelyke ekonomiese en besigheidsrisiko verwante omstandighede. Kapitaalintensiewe organisasies word dikwels gekonfronteer met die uitdagende besluit wanneer om fisiese bates te vervang. Hierdie besluit moet gemaak word as ’n funksie van tradisionele batevervangingsfaktore soos die agteruitgang in bateverrigting, toenemende bedryfs- en instandhoudingskoste, bate herwinningswaarde en belastingimplikasies asook organisasie-spesifieke omstandighede en die eksterne bedryfsomgewing. Baie organisasies is geneig om op die tradisionele batevervangingsfaktore te fokus en neem dus nie die evolusie en impak van besigheidsrisiko’s, wat ’n aansienlike invloed kan hê op strategiese inisiatiewe soos bedryfskostes en kapitaalbesteding besluite, in ag nie. In hierdie studie word ’n kwantitatiewe raamwerk ontwikkel om die voorspelde impak en evolusie van besigheidsrisiko’s met die verloop van tyd te integreer in fisiese batevervangingsbesluite in kapitaalintensiewe nywerhede. ’n Logiese en gestruktureerde raamwerk word ontwikkel waarin beide kwalitatiewe en kwantitatiewe besigheidsrisiko’s sowel as tradisionele batevervangingsfaktore ingesluit word met behulp van die Markov besluitnemingsproses modellering tegniek. Die raamwerk bied aan bestuurders ’n instrument om hulle te help in die ontwikkeling van ’n optimale fisiese batevervangingsbeleid vir ’n beperkte tydperk in die toekoms, terwyl dit aan ’n bepaalde doelfunksie voldoen. ’nOmvattende literatuurstudie is uitgevoerwat batebestuur, batevervangingsteorieë, besigheidsrisiko-bestuur, en modellering tegnieke insluit en dien as die basis van die ontwikkeling van die voorgestelde raamwerk. Die validering van die voorgestelde raamwerk is tot stand gebring deur middel van die uitvoering van ’n gevallestudie by ’n diamantmyn in Suider-Afrika wat ’n uitdagende sosioekonomiese en sakeomgewing in die gesig staar. Die gevallestudie beklemtoon beide die teoretiese en praktiese waarde van die raamwerk. Die resultate dui daarop dat die ontwikkelde raamwerk ’n waardevolle instrument is om besigheidsrisiko’s in fisiese batevervangingsbesluite te integreer in kapitaalintensiewe nywerhede

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Explorer les meilleurs canaux de communication pour informer une population locale sur le risque volcanique

International audienceWhich communication channels should be prioritized to make populations aware of local volcanic risks? In the internet age, is it still necessary to privilege the classic channels (radio, television, posters), or are the new communication channels (websites, social media) sufficient? Using an interview-based survey of a population in Peru (n = 76) who have been the object of several volcanic risk communication campaigns using posters, websites, social media and traditional media, we compare the recall (memorization) and perception of these previous campaigns. Two main empirical results emerge from the interviews: 1) Web- sites are proving to be particularly effective communication channels in this context, in stark contrast to the low impact of the printed press; 2) We find that the the same communication campaigns are perceived differently by residents depending on the neighborhood in which they live. This second empirical result advocates for a much more territory-based and localized strategy, where the district by district socio-cultural and geological environment form the foundations for communication strategies.Quels sont les canaux de communication à choisir en priorité pour sensibiliser une population à un risque volcanique local. A l'ère d'Internet, faut-il encore privilégier les canaux classiques (radio, télévision, affichage) ou les nouveaux supports de communication (sites web et réseaux sociaux) sont-ils suffisants ? Basée sur une enquête empirique auprès d'une population ciblée par plusieurs campagnes de communication par affichage, sites web, réseaux sociaux et médias classiques, cette recherche étudie de manière comparative la mémorisation et la perception des campagnes précédentes.Finalement, deux grands types de résultats émergent. Les sites web s'avèrent être de nouveaux canaux de communication particulièrement efficaces, notamment par rapport au faible impact de la presse écrite. En même temps, cette étude empirique montre l'importance d'une communication basée sur une logique territoriale, avec des messages différents dans chaque quartier ; ce qui plaide en faveur d'une communication locale beaucoup plus territorialisée

Explorer les meilleurs canaux de communication pour informer une population locale sur le risque volcanique

International audienceWhich communication channels should be prioritized to make populations aware of local volcanic risks? In the internet age, is it still necessary to privilege the classic channels (radio, television, posters), or are the new communication channels (websites, social media) sufficient? Using an interview-based survey of a population in Peru (n = 76) who have been the object of several volcanic risk communication campaigns using posters, websites, social media and traditional media, we compare the recall (memorization) and perception of these previous campaigns. Two main empirical results emerge from the interviews: 1) Web- sites are proving to be particularly effective communication channels in this context, in stark contrast to the low impact of the printed press; 2) We find that the the same communication campaigns are perceived differently by residents depending on the neighborhood in which they live. This second empirical result advocates for a much more territory-based and localized strategy, where the district by district socio-cultural and geological environment form the foundations for communication strategies.Quels sont les canaux de communication à choisir en priorité pour sensibiliser une population à un risque volcanique local. A l'ère d'Internet, faut-il encore privilégier les canaux classiques (radio, télévision, affichage) ou les nouveaux supports de communication (sites web et réseaux sociaux) sont-ils suffisants ? Basée sur une enquête empirique auprès d'une population ciblée par plusieurs campagnes de communication par affichage, sites web, réseaux sociaux et médias classiques, cette recherche étudie de manière comparative la mémorisation et la perception des campagnes précédentes.Finalement, deux grands types de résultats émergent. Les sites web s'avèrent être de nouveaux canaux de communication particulièrement efficaces, notamment par rapport au faible impact de la presse écrite. En même temps, cette étude empirique montre l'importance d'une communication basée sur une logique territoriale, avec des messages différents dans chaque quartier ; ce qui plaide en faveur d'une communication locale beaucoup plus territorialisée

Explorer les meilleurs canaux de communication pour informer une population locale sur le risque volcanique

International audienceWhich communication channels should be prioritized to make populations aware of local volcanic risks? In the internet age, is it still necessary to privilege the classic channels (radio, television, posters), or are the new communication channels (websites, social media) sufficient? Using an interview-based survey of a population in Peru (n = 76) who have been the object of several volcanic risk communication campaigns using posters, websites, social media and traditional media, we compare the recall (memorization) and perception of these previous campaigns. Two main empirical results emerge from the interviews: 1) Web- sites are proving to be particularly effective communication channels in this context, in stark contrast to the low impact of the printed press; 2) We find that the the same communication campaigns are perceived differently by residents depending on the neighborhood in which they live. This second empirical result advocates for a much more territory-based and localized strategy, where the district by district socio-cultural and geological environment form the foundations for communication strategies.Quels sont les canaux de communication à choisir en priorité pour sensibiliser une population à un risque volcanique local. A l'ère d'Internet, faut-il encore privilégier les canaux classiques (radio, télévision, affichage) ou les nouveaux supports de communication (sites web et réseaux sociaux) sont-ils suffisants ? Basée sur une enquête empirique auprès d'une population ciblée par plusieurs campagnes de communication par affichage, sites web, réseaux sociaux et médias classiques, cette recherche étudie de manière comparative la mémorisation et la perception des campagnes précédentes.Finalement, deux grands types de résultats émergent. Les sites web s'avèrent être de nouveaux canaux de communication particulièrement efficaces, notamment par rapport au faible impact de la presse écrite. En même temps, cette étude empirique montre l'importance d'une communication basée sur une logique territoriale, avec des messages différents dans chaque quartier ; ce qui plaide en faveur d'une communication locale beaucoup plus territorialisée

INTERVENTI DI POTATURA VERDE PER LA GESTIONE DELLA MATURAZIONE DELL’UVA NELLA CV MERLOT IN AMBIENTE CALDO ARIDO

Considering the predicted scenarios of climate change for the near future, Mediterranean vineyards, may face substantial shifts in precipitation, atmospheric conditions and temperature, resulting in higher winter rainfall, together with drier and hotter summers. All potentially contributing to an uncoupling of technological and phenolic ripeness in Vitis vinifera grapevines, due to berry ripening taking place in the hottest month of the year, resulting in wines with high alcohol content and low titratable acidity. A reduced sugar accumulation rate in the berry may delay berry maturation and subsequently counteract these effects. The aim of this study was to delay berry maturation in cv Merlot, by altering the source-sink relationship at full veraison creating a source reduction by mechanical and hand leaf removal. Defoliated treatments compared to the control vines, stopped the vegetative growth, delayed berry shrinkage and sugar accumulation without altering must pH and titratable acidity and increased skin anthocyanin and flavonoids. It can be concluded that although the post-verasion source reduction approach holds great promise to study environmental phenomena like climate warming, careful planning and design of experiments are necessary, especially considering the time of treatment and harvest

Performance of the 32 mm Myval transcatheter heart valve for treatment of aortic stenosis in patients with extremely large aortic annuli in real‐world scenario: First global, multicenter experience

Background Extremely large aortic valve anatomy is one of the remaining limitations leading to exclusion of patients for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Aims The newly approved Myval 32 mm device is designed for use in aortic annulus areas up to 840 mm2. Here we want to share the initial worldwide experience with the device. Methods and Results Retrospective data were collected from 10 patients with aortic stenosis and very large annular anatomy (mean area 765.5 mm2), who underwent implantation with 32 mm Myval transcatheter heart valve at eight centers. Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 device success was achieved in all cases. Mild paravalvular leak was observed in three patients and two patients required new pacemaker implantation. One patient experienced retroperitoneal hemorrhage caused by the contralateral 6 F sheath and required surgical revision. No device-related complications, stroke, or death from any cause occurred within the 30-day follow-up period. In a studied cohort of 2219 consecutive TAVR-screened patients from a central European site, only 0.27% of patients showed larger anatomy than covered by the 32 mm Myval device by instructions for use without off-label use of overexpansion. This rate was significantly higher for the 34 mm Evolut Pro (1.8%) and 29 mm Sapien 3 (2.1%) devices. Conclusions The Myval 32 mm prosthesis showed promising initial results in a cohort of patients who previously had to be excluded from TAVR. It is desirable that all future TAVR systems accommodate larger anatomy to allow optimal treatment of all patients